Pakistan Bulletin
An up-to-date and informed analyses of key issues of Pakistan.
COP28 and Pakistan: A Litmus Test for Climate Justice
December 2023
With all eyes on COP28 for a magical solution to a climate crisis pushing the world on the edge of a precipice, the event was a realization that the journey to climate justice is long and arduous.
The 28th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, COP28, recently concluded in Dubai with an unprecedented 70,000 footprints with individuals from over two hundred nations.
COP is the primary global framework for climate negotiations. After another year of devastating heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts and wildfires across the globe, there is intense pressure on COP to deliver after years of big promises. Without a global push for major reforms to the current financial systems, it is impossible for developing countries to cope with the negative impacts of climate shocks.
Climate change has disproportionally affected the Global South, and the 2022 floods in Pakistan were a stark reminder of that. One-third of the country was submerged under water, affecting millions of people. As per the World Bank estimate, it caused flood damages and economic loss of over US$30 billion. The Asian Development Bank also estimates that Pakistan’s economic losses due to climate change could amount to 18-20% of its GDP by 2050. On the flip side, Pakistan only contributes less than one percent to global greenhouse gas emissions and stands as the fifth most vulnerable country to climate change.
The operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) at COP28 offers a glimmer of hope for developing countries grappling with the repercussions of climate change, compelling polluting nations to shoulder fiscal responsibility for their role in planetary destruction.
In the words of the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Pakistan is a “litmus test” for climate justice. It echoes the sentiments of the Global South which end up paying for the activities in the Global North. Within this context, the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) at COP28 offers a glimmer of hope for developing countries grappling with the repercussions of climate change, compelling polluting nations to shoulder fiscal responsibility for their role in planetary destruction. It indeed shows the severity of the climate crisis as the creation of a fund like this that would have been unimaginable a few years ago. Last year, Pakistan played a pivotal role in shaping this agreement under its leadership within the G77 at COP27, marking a watershed moment in climate justice.
The operationalization of the fund garnered significant pledges, with the host country, the United Arab Emirates, pledging $100 million, matched by Germany. This was topped by Italy and France, each pledging $108 million. The United States, which is historically the worst emitter of greenhouse gases and the largest producer of oil and gas this year, pledged a mere $17.5 million. The total funds pledged, slightly over $700 million, represent less than 0.2% of the irreversible and non-economic losses that developing countries endure annually due to global heating.
This amount is minuscule for the challenge at hand and falls short of addressing the scale and magnitude of the crisis. As per some estimates, by 2030, the developing world will need more than $2.4 trillion to address climate change – not as a one-off, but every single year. It took three decades to create this fund, and the disparity in terms of pledges raises questions about the commitment of the highest-polluting nations to address the plight of the developing world. The countries with the highest historical responsibility for climate change must commit to generating finance for a global just transition.
There is also a lack of trust as to whether this money will be disbursed to the most affected, as these funds are “pledged” and not readily available for utilization. The non-binding nature of the agreement and the uncertainty surrounding the disbursement of the pledged funds only intensifies concerns.
It was encouraging to see Pakistan seizing at least five opportunities at COP28. These included: being elected as a member of the founding board of the LDF; securing positions on four important committees of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) namely the Technology Executive Committee (TEC); Paris Committee on Capacity-Building (PCCB); Advisory Board of the Santiago Network (ABSN); and the Standing Committee on Finance (SCF).
The LDF board oversees the fund’s operations, and these committees aim to work together on various aspects of climate change. The effectiveness of these mechanisms will hinge on how effectively Pakistan utilizes its position to plead its case.
The LDF board oversees the fund’s operations, and these committees aim to work together on various aspects of climate change. The effectiveness of these mechanisms will hinge on how effectively Pakistan utilizes its position to plead its case.
As per some estimates, by 2030, the developing world will need more than $2.4 trillion to address climate change – not as a one-off, but every single year.
Moving forward, this would involve strengthening the discourse that financing for loss and damage is not merely an option but a binding responsibility for polluting countries. Pushing for clarity by specifying the nature and timing of these pledged funds. Emphasizing that such contributions should be grants rather than loans, particularly for climatically vulnerable and economically stressed countries like Pakistan.
The first-ever global stock-take at COP28 which shows where the world stands eight years after signing the Paris Agreement also paints a gloomy picture. We are not on track to keep the global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. While outcomes such as the Loss and Damage Fund signify incremental progress, the real success will be realized when these pledges transform into tangible actions.
The world is watching, and the moral imperative for climate justice demands that words be translated into deeds.
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