Pakistan Bulletin
An up-to-date and informed analyses of key issues of Pakistan.
Nawaz Sharif’s Return to Pakistan’s Politics
December 2023
The former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan after four years of exile is being seen as the first step towards his return to power. However, Pakistan’s public, whom he aspires to lead, has changed. The Knowledge Forum team presents an analysis of his future prospects.
Nawaz Sharif is a prominent figure in Pakistan’s politics. Serving as the Prime Minister of Pakistan three times, his influence has been profound and controversial. During his tenure in the Prime Minister’s office, he made notable efforts to strengthen democracy by resisting the military establishment’s involvement in political decision-making. Thus, as a result, he remained unable to complete all three terms as Prime Minister and was ousted in various ways.
Once again he has returned to Pakistan after exile, a return marked by a controversial court conviction that led to his ousting from the post of Premiership in 2017. Throughout this entire episode, he faced multiple challenges including the unfortunate circumstances of not being able to take care of and mourn the demise of both his mother and wife.
Upon his return to Pakistan, he resumed the leadership of the party and attempted to form alliances with regional political players in pursuit of another term as Prime Minister. However, scepticism prevails regarding whether he and his party can achieve this goal. Furthermore, questions linger about how he and his party, if elected for another term, will manage to align with the military establishment’s agenda and complete the upcoming term.
Moreover, if elected for another term, Nawaz Sharif would face key challenges, including dealing with the increasing threat of terrorism, neutralising intensified polarisation, striking a balance between public aspirations and the country’s economic revival, and revitalising Pakistan’s relations with the rest of the world.
If elected for another term, Nawaz Sharif would face key challenges, including dealing with the increasing threat of terrorism.
One of Nawaz Sharif’s notable successes has been signing the Charter of Democracy (CoD) with his then political rival, Benazir Bhutto in 2006. Under the Charter, they both pledged not to seek military support to come into power or to dislodge a democratic government. The continuation of this collaboration, even after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in 2007, resulted in consolidating significant democratic gains such as constitutional and election law reforms. Based on the lessons learnt, and despite having a history of longstanding political rivalry, both PPP and PML-N continue to take a softer stance against each other.
Given Nawaz Sharif’s political journey has been marked by harsh encounters with the judiciary, he has now started demanding justice against those who paved the way for his ouster from premiership in 2017. Furthermore, he and his party affiliates are not inclined to accommodate Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) for any political or seat arrangement; common in Pakistan’s electoral landscape. However, following the legacy of Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif, if he manages to come into power again, should strive to achieve an agreement between political parties around the issues of neutralising intensified political polarisation and setting an economic reform agenda.
Furthermore, majority of Pakistan’s political parties, including PLM-N, prefer playing power politics, which, as a result, undermines people’s right to participate in public policy discourse, and paves the way for the military to intervene in political decision-making. Secondly, PTI leader Imran Khan, his followers, and people who have a strong desire for democracy to flourish in Pakistan describe traditional political parties, especially PML-N and PPP as firmly stuck in dynastic politics obstructing progress of democracy in Pakistan. In this backdrop, Nawaz Sharif’s return seems to overlook Pakistan’s evolving political dynamics, as he still relies heavily on his family members and close relatives to run his party affairs.
On the economic front, Nawaz Sharif and his party affiliates claim to have achieved a significant GDP growth rate and delivered iconic infrastructure development projects, including the construction of motorways, the establishment of power projects, and the operationalization of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, independent economy experts argue that these projects are unmatched by Pakistan’s economic performance because they contributed to increased foreign debt and failed to pave the way for growth-based development. Interestingly, Pakistan’s debt increased from PKR 3.1 trillion in 2000 to PKR 6.1 trillion in 2008 (General Musharraf regime), rose to PKR 14.3 trillion in 2013 (Pakistan Peoples Party’s tenure) and further jumped to PKR 25 trillion in 2018 (PML-N tenure) (cited in January 2023 Express Tribune article by Shahbaz Rana). Moreover, despite CPEC’s certain gains, China now holds 30% of Pakistan’s total foreign debt. Hence, without distinction, successive governments, including Nawaz Sharif’s failed to achieve economic stability in Pakistan. Based on previous experiences, how Nawaz Sharif, if he returns to power, will manage things ahead is unpredictable. A proposed way forward is to achieve a charter of economy to spearhead economic stability in Pakistan, duly agreed upon by all stakeholders.
Nawaz Sharif enjoys a legacy of favouring enhanced regional connectivity for Pakistan, particularly with an aspiration to bring Pakistan and India closer. He managed to invite and host the then-Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Pakistan in 1999. Subsequently, in 2015, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Pakistan to meet Nawaz Sharif. However, his efforts to normalise relations with India were blocked. In the current changed scenario, it is anticipated that Nawaz Sharif, if elected again, will be able to initiate the normalisation process with India.
Nawaz Sharif enjoys a legacy of favouring enhanced regional connectivity for Pakistan, particularly with an aspiration to bring Pakistan and India closer. He managed to invite and host the then-Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Pakistan in 1999. Subsequently, in 2015, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Pakistan to meet Nawaz Sharif. However, his efforts to normalise relations with India were blocked. In the current changed scenario, it is anticipated that Nawaz Sharif, if elected again, will be able to initiate the normalisation process with India.
Nawaz Sharif’s fresh chapter in Pakistan’s politics seems to ignore the evolving political dynamics in which a good majority of public looks at dynastic politics with contempt. He still relies heavily on his family members and close relatives to run his party affairs.
With a history of relations with the leadership of Middle Eastern countries, China and Turkey, he is likely to revitalise relations and seek support for Pakistan from these countries. Moreover, Nawaz Sharif would relatively be more acceptable to the European Union (EU) as he successfully secured the EU’s GSP+ status for Pakistan during his previous tenure. However, given the evolving global geopolitical dynamics, achieving a balance in relations with China and the USA would be a challenging task for him.
As Nawaz Sharif’s political career continues to evolve, his next move is under tighter scrutiny, more than ever. He has yet another chance to lead and shape the political, economic and democratic agenda. However, this time, a lethargic public who has repeatedly paid the price of political experiments in Pakistan demands better representation. This public wants economic reforms, accountability of the political and military elites, and a real change in their quality of life. The traditional brand of politics practiced by Pakistan’s mainstream political parties, including that of Nawaz Sharif’s, has so far failed to come up with a plan to fulfil these aspirations.
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